Four West African countries will hold a presidential election in the coming months: Cape Verde, Nigeria, Gambia, and Guinea-Bissau. This analysis highlights the trends and issues surrounding these elections.
This intelligence note examines the main upcoming elections in West Africa between November 2026 and February 2027. It analyzes the electoral configurations in Cape Verde, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, and Nigeria, highlighting the power dynamics, institutional systems, and factors likely to influence the outcomes. The goal is to identify the dominant trends and points of vigilance for political, economic, and institutional actors active in the region.
Cape Verde – Presidential election: November 15, 2026
Type : Presidential election (possibly in two rounds).
Confirmed candidates (6) :
- José Maria Neves (PAICV, incumbent president – candidate for a second term)
- Joana Rosa (supported by the MpD, former Minister of Justice)
- Antero Tavares (magistrate, independent)
- Casimiro Pina (lawyer)
- Gilson Alves (doctor)
- Loisito Sousa (teacher / athlete)
Neves was elected in the first round in 2021 (with about 51.8%). Rosa is the main alternative of the opposition. No recent public polls are available.
Political context : The MpD, which held the parliamentary majority for a decade, failed to retain it in the legislative elections of May 2026. The PAICV has regained the advantage. This configuration strengthens the incumbent president, with the possibility for his party to reclaim the entire executive power.
Institutional system : Cape Verde applies a semi-presidential system. The President of the Republic is elected by direct universal suffrage. The Prime Minister, head of government, is appointed by the president; in practice, this is the leader of the majority party (or coalition) in the National Assembly (72 seats).
→ Trend : Favorable to José Maria Neves (PAICV).
Gambia – Presidential election: December 5, 2026
Type : Presidential election. Approximately 1.146 million registered voters. Submission of candidacies ongoing (November 3–14).
Main candidates / political forces :
- Adama Barrow (NPP, outgoing president – candidate for a third term)
- Ousainou Darboe (UDP, main historical representative of the opposition)
- Talib Ahmed Bensouda (UNITE / Movement for Change, mayor of Kanifing)
- Others: Bakary K. Badjie and various independents / small parties (approximately 27 potential candidacies).
Polls :
- Gambia Participates (August 2026, ≈ 1,556 respondents): Barrow 32%, Darboe 25%, Bensouda 19%, undecided 17%.
- Prediction markets (Polymarket): Barrow ≈ 66–67%, Darboe ≈ 22%.
Point of caution : According to the same poll, 55% of respondents oppose Barrow's candidacy for a third term and 60% state they would not vote for him in any case.
Electoral system : Gambia uses a first-past-the-post electoral system. The candidate who comes first is elected, even without reaching 50%. A second round is only planned in case of a perfect tie between the two (or more) leading candidates.
→ Trend : Barrow is favored due to the voting system, but the opposition still has time to unite around a single candidate.
Guinea-Bissau – Presidential and legislative elections: scheduled for December 6, 2026
Likely postponement. The transitional Prime Minister and the Electoral Commission cited non-compliance with legal deadlines as well as the lack of sufficient technical and political conditions. Former President Umaro Sissoco Embaló has been banned from returning to the country to run.
→ Trend : Extension of the military transition period.
Nigeria – General Elections 2027
Schedule :
- Presidential + National Assembly: January 16, 2027
- Governorships + State Assemblies: February 6, 2027
Approximately 103.4 million registered voters. 18 presidential/vice-presidential pairs validated by INEC.
Main pairs :
- Bola Tinubu (APC, incumbent president) / Kashim Shettima
- Peter Obi (NDC) / Rabiu Kwankwaso
- Seyi Makinde (APM) / Daura
- Other notable figures: Donald Duke (PRP), Omoyele Sowore (AAC), etc.
Major development (November 5, 2026) : The Federal High Court invalidated the candidacy of Atiku Abubakar, leader of the African Democratic Congress and one of the main opposition figures, due to serious irregularities in his party's primary process. The party has been suspended and none of its members will be able to run for president.
Abubakar's exclusion removes the only major candidate from the predominantly Muslim North. In 2023, he finished second with 29% of the votes, behind Tinubu (36.6%) in a divided opposition; Peter Obi was third.
Poll : Oxford-Metro Analytics (September 2026, approximately 69,000 responses): Tinubu 35.4%, Obi 33.9%, Atiku 26.7%.
→ Trend : Tinubu slightly ahead. The outcome will largely depend on Abubakar's potential support for Obi. The two men knew each other and Abubakar had not ruled out this option in the past. However, Nigerian geopolitics remains complex: Abubakar's electorate will not automatically accept switching to a candidate from the South.
Summary :
The elections in Cape Verde and Gambia will take place in the coming weeks, with an institutional and contextual advantage for the incumbents (Neves and Barrow), tempered in Cape Verde by the parliamentary shift and in Gambia by the rejection of a third term and the possibility of opposition unification. In Guinea-Bissau, the postponement seems certain and extends the transition. In Nigeria, the invalidation of Atiku Abubakar's candidacy mechanically strengthens Tinubu's position, while leaving open a reconfiguration of the opposition around Peter Obi, whose effectiveness will depend on North-South voter transfers.
