Methodological Note — October 2026

Normalization of weights and rebasing of composite scores

1. Subject

ESPA Advisory announces a methodological evolution of the West Africa Country Risk Index (WACRI), effective from October 2026. This update, conducted following an internal methodological audit, consists of (i) a normalization of weights of the nine risk categories and (ii) a rebasing of the composite scores of the sixteen covered countries. It aims to enhance the statistical rigor of the index and its alignment with international reference practices.

2. Context and motivation

The WACRI, launched in March 2026, is based on an analysis grid with nine risk categories (Political, Security, Economic, Regulatory, Social, Geopolitical, Climatic, Operational, Cyber) broken down into 39 sub-risks, and on four differentiated investor profiles (Standard, Extractive, Financial, Infrastructure).

As part of the biannual methodological review provided for by the governance framework of the index, an internal audit identified an optimization opportunity regarding the arithmetic consistency of the category weights. This development is part of the continuous improvement dynamic of the index and reflects ESPA Advisory's commitment to methodological transparency.

3. Nature of the update

Two additional adjustments are introduced:

a)    Standardization of weights. The weighting vectors of the four investor profiles have been recalibrated to ensure a sum rigorously equal to 100 % for each of them. The new weights for the Standard profile, by way of illustration, are as follows: Political 18 %, Security 15 %, Economic 14 %, Regulatory 14%, Geopolitical 10 %, Operational 10 %, Social 9 %, Climatic 5 %, Cyber 5 %. The Extractive, Financial, and Infrastructure profiles have undergone symmetrical recalibration.

b)    Rebasing of composite scores. The composite scores of the sixteen countries have been recalculated by applying the normalized weights to the existing category scores. This rebasing operation preserves the relative structure of country assessments — a country deemed riskier than another before the update remains so afterward — while aligning the absolute levels of the scores with the new weighting grid.

4. Implications for composite scores

Rebasing mechanically results in an adjustment downward of the composite scores of about 9.7% on average, with the country-specific ratio ranging from 0.886 to 0.916 depending on each country's risk structure. This effect is purely mechanical and methodological; it does not reflect a deterioration in the risk environment of the countries concerned between September and October 2026.

The table below presents the rebasing applied to the sixteen countries:

Table 1 — Rebasing of WACRI composite scores (September → October 2026). The ratio corresponds to the quotient "October score / September score."

Figure 1 — Visualization of the impact of rebasing on the composite scores of the 16 countries (comparison September 2026 vs October 2026, sorted by decreasing risk).

The impact on the WACRI classification is limited but significant for countries close to the band thresholds:

Table 2 — Evolution of WACRI codes for countries close to band thresholds.

5. Management of history and continuity of the series

In accordance with usual practices of rating agencies during a methodological review, ESPA Advisory applies a dual-track approach :

Official historical series (March → September 2026): previously published scores are maintained as is in the register, under the old methodology. This preservation maintains the traceability and integrity of the system.

Recalibrated series (estimated): a retroactively recalculated series, applying the country-specific rebasement ratio to historical scores, is made available to clients. This series allows for continuous visualization of the trend on a homogeneous basis.

Comparison rule between periods (intended for clients)

Ne pas comparer directement un score brut d'avant octobre 2026 avec un score brut d'après octobre 2026 : la différence serait méthodologique et non réelle.

Pour toute analyse de tendance inter-périodes, utiliser la série recalibrée qui applique rétroactivement le ratio pays-spécifique et garantit une comparaison sur base homogène.

6. Frequently Asked Questions

Q1 — Why proceed with this update now?

The semiannual methodological audit required by WACRI governance identified an opportunity for optimization on the arithmetic consistency of the weights. The update was initiated as soon as identified, in accordance with the principle of transparency that governs the system.

Q2 — Are historical scores being called into question?

No. The scores published between March and September 2026 remain valid as such, within their original methodological framework. They remain available in the registry. The recalibrated series is a complementary series intended for trend analysis.

Q3 — Are the investor profiles (Extractive, Financial, Infrastructure) affected?

Yes, symmetrically to the Standard profile. The four profiles have been recalibrated simultaneously and are now all at 100%. The relative differences between profiles are preserved: a country deemed riskier in the Extractive profile than in the Standard profile before the update remains so after.

Q4 — Will the WACRI ratings evolve in the future?

The WACRI methodology is subject to a semi-annual review. Any future changes will be communicated in the same format, with notice and complete methodological documentation, in accordance with international standards.

7. Contact

For any methodological questions related to this update:

ESPA Advisory — Research Department

Email: contact@espadvisory.org

ESPA Advisory is committed to maintaining the highest methodological transparency on the WACRI. This communication is part of the continuous improvement policy of the system and follows the standard practices of international rating agencies.