Monitoring Note - Update of the WACRI Index as of May 1st

The index (still in the testing phase) takes into account more this month the structural political orientations, as in the case of Senegal (the choice of non-restructuring with the IMF and the updating of budgetary data), the consequences of geopolitical tensions on supply chains, and the electoral calendar in certain countries. Terrorist tensions in Mali also alert the entire region.

Economically, at the scale of Sub-Saharan Africa, according to the African Development Bank's 2026 Macroeconomic Performance and Prospects report (MEO), growth prospects have been lowered to 4.3% for 2026 and 4.4% for 2027, whereas they were at 4.6% for both years in January. These forecasts are based on the assumption that the conflict in the Middle East remains limited in time and scope.

Some of this information has impacted our risk rating of West African countries, such as Nigeria, whose economic risk has increased from 3.5 to 3.9, with an additional 15.4% inflation in March year-on-year after 15.1% in January and February.

The WACRI index of Mali rises from 4.3 to 4.5 due to recent coordinated attacks. On April 25, 2026, a coordinated offensive by JNIM and the Azawad Liberation Front simultaneously strikes Bamako, Kati, Kidal, Gao, Sévaré, and Mopti. This is described as the most coordinated attack in the entire history of the Malian conflict. Defense Minister Sadio Camara has been killed. The attacks on Bamako and Kati are particularly significant: they strike at the heart of the political and military authority of the transitional government, revealing the vulnerability of the most secure areas of the country.

These facts encroach on the security of the area. Niger's WACRI index rises from 4.2 to 4.3, while Burkina Faso's remains at 4.2. Cyber risks and security risks remain particularly high in these countries due to the informational warfare and the immaturity of the digital framework and infrastructure.

However, the armies of the AES countries remain resilient and terrorist groups do not have the capacity to occupy all territory or major infrastructure (even though the risk of instability persists). Mali has initiated a response in areas under attack from terrorist groups; Burkina Faso launched operation "WIBGA-2" on April 28, and Niger remains on alert with the cancellation of May 1st parades, after conducting joint airstrikes in Gao, Ménaka, and Kidal in the hours following the attacks on April 25.

The increase in Ghana's index from 2.4 to 2.7 is simply explained by methodological and structural adjustments that take into account the country's vulnerability to commodity shocks and cyber risks. The economic risk has thus risen from 2.5 to 2.7 but is expected to decrease in the coming months. Indeed, Ghana is strengthening the diversification and industrialization of the country. The only oil refining plant (Tema) in Ghana resumed operations in December 2025, and exports of finished products are strengthening.

However, Ghana is facing a decline in production in the cocoa sector and is still characterized by a strong dependence on rain-fed agriculture.

Despite regional and global security tensions, Ghana remains a stable country with interesting investment prospects, earning it security and political risk ratings of <2 in the WACRI. Its regulatory risk is low (2.3) but deserves attention since the announcement of the end of adjustment plans with the IMF, which could lead to a change in framework to strengthen the endogenization of the economy.

Senegal moves from 2.6 to 2.8 due to the consideration of debt tensions, cyber risks (increasing from 2.8 to 3.1), an unemployment rate of 23.3% (ANSD), and climate risk which rises from 2.5 to 2.8 due to the approach of the rainy season.

The absence of restructuring with the IMF and the reliance on the regional market makes the repayment of Senegal's debt a bit riskier without undermining the country's credibility. Senegal is diversifying its economic relations and has successfully met all its fundraising goals for the past two years.

Son WACRI is impacted by the approaching rainy season, which can cause flooding and challenge the smoothness of transportation in certain areas of the country. The cyber risk is increasing due to the country's gradual digitalization as part of the New technological deal, but it is under the threat of cyberattacks that have already occurred.

Between March 31 and May 1, 2026, Benin sees its political risk decrease significantly (from 3.8 to 2.4), driven by the presidential election held on April 12. Romuald Wadagni, Talon's successor, wins the election with 94% of the votes in an overall calm atmosphere praised by ECOWAS. A victory for the former Minister of Finance that further reassures markets due to his reputation on budgetary orthodoxy issues.

The transition is peaceful and Talon's respect for constitutional limits is a rare positive signal in the region. However, it should be put into perspective: the main opposition party, Les Démocrates, has not been able to validate any candidacies, and the particularly restrictive sponsorship conditions have reduced the election to a rather unbalanced face-off. Disputed constitutional reforms, including the extension of the presidential term to seven years, also darken the democratic picture. The attempted coup on December 7, 2025, against Talon's residence, although quickly crushed, has left traces with a slightly tense political climate. The composite score remains at 3.2, with a security risk (3.1) that remains the main point of concern, fueled by persistent terrorist pressure in the north.

The country remains attractive, enjoys a fairly good image internationally, and the WACRI score drops from 3.2 to 2.8 for an investor profile.

Beyond the country developments, this update also includes an important methodological revision. The geopolitical risk has been reassessed for all countries due to a technical overestimation in March. The sub-criteria "international sanctions," "strategic dependencies," and "external influence" have been reviewed and restructured. Four countries experienced an increase in the geopolitical risk index, one remained stable (Sierra Leone), and eleven saw a decrease.  

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