The ideological and political divergences between the executive and the parliamentary majority in Senegal continue to maintain ambiguity regarding the budgetary trajectory. PASTEF, the majority in the Assembly (130 seats out of 165), in a break with President Bassirou Diomaye Faye (who created his own party), has already rejected the Draft Amended Finance Law (PLFR) 2026 and the first part of the Initial Finance Law 2027 (PLFI).
- November 3 : rejection in plenary of the PLFR 2026 (126 votes), after two rejections in committee. Reasons put forward by PASTEF: lack of budgetary sincerity, insufficient protection of purchasing power, opacity, and excessive dependence on debt.
- November 7 : the Finance Commission rejects the first part of the PLFI 2027 (revenues, debt, budgets of the Presidency, Prime Minister's Office, institutions).
In a statement, PASTEF notably listed the grievances in this PLFI: documentation transmitted too late (essential documents on November 5-6, errata the day before), contradictory figures (1.5% growth according to Minister Cheikh Diba while documents mention 2.4%; variable deficit according to the documents), fragile legal basis, and energy subsidy reform deemed too harsh for households.
The PLFI 2027 aims for a deficit of 4.7% of GDP (1,351.7 billion FCFA) compared to 7.6% in the rejected PLFR, with projected revenues around 6,012 billion and expenditures of 7,364 billion. Energy subsidies would decrease from 790.3 to 477 billion FCFA, with a goal of bringing them down to 1% of GDP by 2029. A technical agreement reached with the IMF on September 1, 2026, paves the way for an Extended Credit Facility of 2.2 billion USD (2027-2029), but the approval of the Board of Directors remains conditional on a coherent budget. The rejection prolongs uncertainty regarding disbursements and debt management.
WACRI Analysis (October 2026 scores – Standard profile)
Senegal: composite score 2.76 → A2– (Low risk to monitor).
| Category | Score | Code | Label | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Political (POL) | 3.34 | B1 | Moderate risk | Divergences between the parliamentary majority and the executive, rejection of the PLFR 2026 and the first part of the PLFI 2027. Risk of budgetary blockage. The risk remains moderate, as institutions are strong, but may increase in the coming weeks (notably with the risk of a dissolution of the Assembly). |
| Security | 1.57 | A1– | Negligible risk | Overall security situation is well controlled in the territory. |
| Economic | 3.28 | B1 | Moderate risk | Projected deficit at 4.7% of GDP. Uncertainty regarding budget execution and the timeline of the program with the IMF.Debt is the main risk. |
| Regulatory | 2.57 | A2– | Low risk | Cadre juridique stable, mais incertitude sur l’adoption des lois de finances et les réformes liées au FMI. |
| Social | 3.20 | B1 | Moderate risk | Risk of tensions related to the reduction of subsidies (especially energy) and the economic situation. |
| Geopolitical | 2.40 | A2 | Low risk | Stable regional positioning. No immediate major tensions. |
| Climate | 3.11 | B1 | Moderate risk | Exposure to climate risks (drought, floods). |
| Operational | 2.63 | A2– | Low risk | Overall correct operational environment. But risk on energy. |
| Cyber | 3.25 | B1 | Moderate risk | Cyber maturity level still limited. Recent attacks against public IT systems. |
| Composite score | 2.76 | A2– | Low risk | Overall favorable profile, but political and budgetary risk weighs on the reading. |
Note : The high political score and the lack of budgetary clarification maintain a risk of upward revision of the composite if the blockage continues or leads to a dissolution. The risk at A2- is explained by the country's traditional political stability, a proven but mitigable macroeconomic framework, a predictable regulatory environment, and less strategic dependence.
Sectors at risk for investors as long as political and budgetary uncertainty persists (short term)
| Sector | Risk level | Main exposure factors |
|---|---|---|
| Hydrocarbons (upstream & downstream) | High | Dependence on oil/gas revenues in the framework; possible revision of production or tax assumptions; indirect impact through public financing and international partners. |
| Energy (electricity, distribution) | Very high | Subsidy reform (decrease from 790 → 477 billion); risk of price increases; cash flow tension on Senelec; payment delays to operators; IMF conditionality. |
| Mining and extractive industries | Moderate (short term) | Regulatory and fiscal climate likely to evolve under budgetary pressure; image and access to international financing slightly compromised by sovereign uncertainty. |
| Transport, logistics, and fuel-consuming industry | Moderate to high | Potential increase in fuel costs (especially diesel) in case of subsidy adjustments; impact on margins and competitiveness. |
| Agriculture and agro-industry | Moderate to high | Cost of inputs and transport; strengthened social safety nets (doubled scholarships) but dependence on budgetary arbitrations. |
| Public contracts, construction, and infrastructure | High | Accumulation of arrears (goal of clearing 480 billion by 2027); risk of freezing or prioritizing expenditures; payment delays. |
| Banks and financing | Moderate to high | Sovereign exposure; state liquidity; timeline of the IMF program; possible tightening of credit conditions. |
| Services and consumption | Moderate | Pressure on purchasing power if energy adjustments are not compensated; fragile social pact. |
Points of vigilance for the cabinet
- Short term : evolution of the PLFI in plenary or resorting to alternative pathways (decrees, accountability commitment). Risk of dissolution after December 2.
- IMF : any further delay on a program increases liquidity risk and the cost of debt.
- Souveraineté vs ajustement : PASTEF insiste sur la protection du pouvoir d’achat et la sincérité ; l’exécutif met en avant la consolidation et les priorités sociales. L’équilibre reste instable.
- WACRI : the political score (3.34) is the main warning signal. An institutional clarification or a budget adopted under good conditions could stabilize it; an extension or an open crisis would push it higher.
Conclusion : budgetary and political uncertainty remains the dominant factor. It primarily weighs on sectors related to hydrocarbons, energy, extractives, and public contracts. Investors are encouraged to maintain a posture of heightened vigilance, to plan for review clauses, and to use a monitoring service for tracking parliamentary votes and communications from the IMF.
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